The latest Taiwanese elections constitute a fine example of democratic success that must be celebrated at a time when liberal democracies are threatened more than ever from within by populist movements and from without by authoritarian regimes. The vigor of the electoral campaign, the results obtained by the opposition parties, but above all the attitude of the losers in this race, who promptly congratulated the winner after conceding their defeat, highlight the fact that the diversity of opinions and perspectives are widely respected. Canada, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, among others, issued statements congratulating the people of Taiwan on their elections. As was to be expected, the authorities of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), whose citizens cannot freely exercise their right to vote, have warned Taiwanese leaders against any attempts at independence.
As President Tsai Ing-wen cannot run for a third term under the constitution, the DPP chose Vice President Lai Ching-teh as its presidential candidate, promising continuity with the outgoing administration. Criticized by his adversaries and by the CCP as a tenor of Taiwanese independence, Lai had promised during the campaign to maintain Tsai’s pragmatic line regarding this thorny issue: a declaration of independence presented an unnecessary provocation since Taiwan is already a sovereign state. It already has its attributes, apart from a seat in the United Nations and formal diplomatic relations with most nations. The choice of Hsiao Bi-khim as Lai’s running mate did not reassure the CCP: “representative of Taipei’s economic and cultural affairs” in the United States, she had brilliantly served as her country’s de facto ambassador and has cultivated excellent relations with both parties. In other words, a Lai-Hsiao administration is guaranteed to have a listening ear in Washington.
The second most important candidate before the election, Hou Yu-ih, wearing the colors of the Nationalist Party (or kuomintang, KMT), became mayor of New Taipei in 2018, the largest municipality in Taiwan in terms of number of inhabitants, after a career in the police force. The choice of his running mate Jaw Shaw-kong had left many perplexed: the latter, a populist and popular radio host, was known for his positions considered by many to be too pro-Chinese. The third candidate in terms of popularity, Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei after a career as a doctor, founded the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which he presented as a third way promoting a moderate position between the two main formations.
Taiwan’s polling houses can be proud of having very accurately predicted the election results obtained on January 13, which reflected the trends observed before the vote was held. This remarkable result reveals that the attempts at intimidation by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the interference orchestrated by the Communist Party of China (CCP) during the electoral campaign did not bear fruit. The Lai-Hsiao ticket won the presidential elections, although it had to be content – as expected – with a plurality of votes cast, with 40% of the votes, rather than a majority. Which means a fragile legitimacy, since a third of voters – 33% – chose Hou, and more than a quarter – 26% – chose Ko. More worrying for the future of the Lai administration which will take office In May, the DPP lost its majority in the legislature, the loss of ten seats now placing it second behind the KMT’s 52 seats. With neither of the two main parties holding a majority, the TPP, with its eight seats, finds itself “kingmaker”, and will be able to significantly influence the legislative program of the Lai administration.
The exemplary management of the COVID-19 pandemic by the Tsai administration, which had seen Taiwan shine despite its exclusion from the World Health Organization, will therefore not have been enough to convince a majority of the electorate that the PDP deserved to obtain a third term at the helm of the executive and the legislature. But this result does not mean that a majority of the electorate rejects the view held by the DPP that de facto independence is preferable to a provincial status within the PRC. Unlike previous elections, even the KMT and TPP candidates, although opposed to Taiwan’s independence, also reject the policy promoted by Xi Jinping of “one country two systems”, to which the majority of Taiwanese do not give any credibility following the bringing into line of Hong Kong, where this option had been promised. It should be remembered here that all the candidates – including Lai – had announced their desire to dialogue with the PCC, but in the context of respect for equality between the two camps.
With neither of the two main parties holding a majority, the TPP, with its eight seats, finds itself “kingmaker”, and will be able to significantly influence the legislative program of the Lai administration.
The elections, in the end, were played out like the previous ones on domestic political issues which affect the daily lives of the Taiwanese, on the economic level, in particular. Employment for younger generations, gaps in the long-term care sector, and affordability of housing were the main sources of concern, more than the future of relations with China. The concerns of the younger generations partly explain the disaffection of many voters towards the DPP, and their support for the TPP. A drastic consequence of the legislative elections is the disappearance of third parties such as the New Party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, and the New Power Party, which failed to elect a single representative to the legislature. The political system may therefore be returning to the difficult “cohabitation” experienced by the previous DPP administration under Chen Shui-bian (2001 to 2008). This situation deserves our full attention since the CCP has not hidden its intention to carry out interference with its united front work department, less dangerous certainly than a military intervention, but nevertheless all the more pernicious as it is difficult to detect and counteract.
