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By Tariq Rauf
CIPS Policy Brief, October 2023

At a glance…

• The first seeds were planted nearly eight decades ago warning about the catastrophic humanitarian and environmental consequences, and thus existential risks, of the possession and use of atomic weapons and the first call issued to prohibit nuclear weapons.
• The five NPT nuclear-weapon States are not fulfilling the nuclear disarmament obligations of the NPT, and nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed States blatantly reject the TPNW.
• Unfortunately, the vision of ridding the world of nuclear weapons is receding as the nuclear arms control architecture patiently built up over the past 50 years is collapsing before our eyes.
• For the first time in the more than fifty-year history of Soviet/Russian-United States nuclear arms control not only have existing agreements been dismantled but both sides are modernizing nuclear arsenals unchecked and have lowered the threshold of nuclear weapon use in their declaratory and operational policies.
• We should not despair.
• It is possible to envisage unilateral complete dismantlement of today’s nuclear warhead stocks in about two decades and achieving zero nuclear warheads by 2045 – the 100th anniversary of the first test detonation and two uses of nuclear weapons.

Tariq Rauf, is an independent advisor and consultant on nuclear governance matter and a Director of Atomic Reporters and of Canadian Pugwash; former: Vice Chair of Canadian Pugwash; member of the Eminent Persons Group for Substantive Advancement of Nuclear Disarmament established by the Foreign Minister of Japan; Head of Nuclear Verification and Security Policy at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Alternate Head of the IAEA Delegation to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT) Review Conferences; Senior Advisor on nuclear disarmament to the Chairs (nuclear disarmament) at the 2015 NPT Review Conference and 2014 NPT PrepCom; long time Expert with Canada’s NPT delegation until 2000. Personal views are expressed here.

Tariq was the invited speaker at a CIPS event on October 23rd, 2023. You can watch his full remarks here: