A new Canadian Government is assuming power at a time of great upheaval in international affairs. Norms of non-aggression, cooperative security and strategic restraint are being undermined. Regrettably, some of this disruption originates with our American ally with whom, as the Prime Minister has said, we will need to forge a new security relationship.
In January, President Donald Trump issued an executive order calling for the creation of a “Golden Dome” – a supposed shield over its territory against any form of missile attack from any quarter. The President claimed one could be built before he left office for a cost of USD 175 billion. He also stated that Canada could participate at a cost of USD 61 billion (if we insist on remaining a sovereign country – the price tag has subsequently been raised by Trump to USD 71 billion). As with similar past overtures by the United States to participate in a strategic ballistic missile defence project, Canada should politely decline while reaffirming its commitment to support NORAD modernization. Existing plans to upgrade early warning sensors and enhance defence capacities against cruise and hypersonic missiles would enable Canada to make a substantial contribution to the aerospace defence of North America while remaining within the mutually agreed parameters of NORAD’s mission.
For Canada to go beyond this position in any eventual engagement with the other aspects of the “Golden Dome” scheme would be highly problematic. As with earlier iterations of the national shield concept (recall President Reagan’s “Strategic Defence Initiative” of the 1980s), “Golden Dome” contains fatal flaws and its initiation would be greatly destabilizing for international security.
Prominent among the objections to “Golden Dome” are the following three factors:
Ineffective: the track record for US ballistic missile defence efforts has been dismal. After decades of development and billions of dollars spent the current ground based national missile defence has a success record of approximately 50% in what are heavily scripted and unrealistic tests that do not account for the adversary employing decoys and other measures to overwhelm defences as part of a nuclear missile attack on the US.
Schemes to develop space-based missile defence sensors and interceptors (as per the Strategic Defense Initiative) pose intractable technical problems and also fail to take into account the likely use by adversaries of countermeasures against any such system if ever assembled.
Destabilizing: pursuit of the “Golden Dome” plan would be extremely destabilizing in what is already a tense strategic standoff amongst nuclear armed powers. The strategic relationship between offence and defence cannot be wished away. The most probable response by peer adversaries of the US to even the pursuit of a strategic missile defense system is the build-up of offensive missiles to ensure the viability of their retaliatory forces. Concern about whether a retaliatory force reduced by an adversary’s first strike would be able to overwhelm such a defence would increase the pressure to adopt a launch-on-warning posture or to strike first in a crisis, thereby increasing the risk of nuclear war. A further escalation of the nuclear arms race can be expected.
The space-based elements of “Golden Dome” would also ensure the weaponization of outer space, a condition that Canada and other states have worked to prevent for decades. To add a new space arms race to the existing nuclear one on earth would pose a grave threat to international peace and security as well as potentially deny the world the benefits of space-enabled services we have become increasingly dependent on.
Cost: the “Golden Dome” plan has to date not been followed up with detailed plans or credible costings. Most analysts think the President’s projection to have an operational system in place within three years for a total cost of $175 billion is hugely unrealistic. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated costs for only the space-based elements of the system to counter one or two ICBMs launched by North Korea at more than $500 billion over twenty years. Canada needs to devote its limited defence spending to acquiring equipment and capabilities relevant to real world demands and could ill afford feeding money into the financial black hole at the centre of “Golden Dome”.
In developing a defence relationship that supports our sovereignty and practical military missions, the Government should avoid engaging with the strategic ballistic missile defence aspects of “Golden Dome” and continue to invest in NORAD modernization as an appropriate contribution to the joint defence of North America.
