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By Robin Collins
CIPS Policy Brief, October 2026

At a glance…

• The author reflects on distinctive responses to three global problems: pandemics such as we experienced with COVID19; imminent climate-induced tipping points that are barreling towards us at a dangerous clip; and nuclear weapons/nuclear war. At the end he refers to some theory about How Change Happens, what some obstacles are, and why we can remain optimistic.
• What was missing most of all in Reagan’s many-year abolition mission was sufficient trust in him when it mattered. Absent trust, and verifiable truth, sustainable progress is not feasible.
• The historical record shows that change is generally unpredictable yet always inevitable.
• Dissent brews quietly, and many people may not act until they see motion by others around them. Others may hold no pre-existing views. New norms therefore are possible when a tipping point is reached and a “norm cascade” results.
• The common security framework is still the best one available even though it has been sidelined and needs to be revived.
• We know optimists will triumph because optimists believe bad situations are temporary and can be bounced back from… eventually.
• Nose to the grindstone, tell the truth as you see it, even when it seems you are all alone.

Robin Collins has supported disarmament, alternative defence, peace and UN peacekeeping for 35 years through a variety of organizations, including as a chair of Mines Action Canada, and as a co-chair of the Canadian nuclear weapon abolition network CNANW. He is currently secretary of Canadian Pugwash Group and a board member of the Rideau Institute.