Event Date: November 5, 2026 - 9:00am to November 6, 2026 - 1:00pm
Location: FSS 4007/FSS 4004, 120 University Private, University of Ottawa

Presented by the CN-Paul M. Tellier Chair on Business and Public Policy, and CIPS 

The State of Global Trade Today and Tomorrow brings together leading economists, policymakers, and trade experts to examine how rising tariffs, industrial policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain reconfiguration are transforming the global trading system. The workshop explores the consequences of recent trade policy shifts, including the implications of U.S. tariffs, China’s growing trade surpluses, and changing patterns of global commerce, with particular attention to their effects on Canada and the broader international economy. Participants will also discuss the resilience of the global trading system and the policy responses required to navigate an increasingly uncertain environment. A dedicated session will assess the strengths and limitations of leading economic models used to evaluate trade policies, compare model outcomes, and improve the evidence base for trade policymaking.

PROGRAM:

Thursday, November 5 (room 4007)

9:00am-9:30am – Arrival, registration and breakfast

9:30am-9:45am – Welcome Remarks (Patrick Leblond)

9:45am-12:00pm – Session 1: Shifts in Global Trade Patterns
(15-min. health break halfway through)
Moderator: Mélanie Raymond (Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada)

• Global Impact of Tariffs and Supply Chain Reorganization
  • Robert Koopman (Hurst Senior Professorial Lecturer, School of International Service, American University; in person)
• Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade
  • Joseph Steinberg (Professor, Department of Economics, University of Toronto: online)
• Global Imbalances, Industrial Policies and the Challenge of Surging Chinese Trade Surpluses
  • Sébastien Jean (Professor, Economics, Chaire Jean-Baptiste Say d’économie industrielle, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers; in person)
• Impact on Canadian Trade Dynamics
  • Shenjie Chen (Director of the Economic Research and Modelling Division, Office of the Chief Economist, Global Affairs Canada; in person)

12:00pm-1:00pm – Lunch

1:00pm-3:00pm – Session 2: Policy Implications and Outlook

A panel discussion to assess global trade resilience and the long-term structural implications of shifting trade policies.

Moderator: Wolfgang Alschner (Professor, Hyman Soloway Chair on Business and Trade Law, Faculty of Law, University of Ottawa)

• Sébastien Jean (Professor, Economics, Chaire Jean-Baptiste Say d’économie industrielle, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers; in person)
• Joy Kategekwa (Director, Regional Integration Coordination Office in Abidjan, African Development Bank Group; online)
• Robert Koopman (Hurst Senior Professorial Lecturer, School of International Service, American University; in person)
• Inu Manak (Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, in person)
• Ari Van Assche (Professor, Department of International Business, HEC Montréal; in person)

3:00pm-3:30pm – Summary and Concluding Remarks (Patrick Leblond)

Friday, November 6 (room 4004)*

8:30am-9:00am – Arrival, registration and breakfast

9:00am-12:00pm – Session 3: Model Validation & Intercomparison
(15-min. health break halfway through)

Technical alignment of economic models with real-world outcomes. Model Intercomparison: Reconciling structural CGE model outcomes with macroeconomic frameworks to ensure internal consistency and robust policy advice.

Moderator: Jason Garred, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Ottawa

• Title to come
  • Keith Head (Professor, Strategy and Business Economics Division, HSBC Professor in Asian Commerce, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia; online)
• The simulated impact of tariff changes: a comparison of CGE and NQT models
  • Eddy Bekkers (Research Economist, World Trade Organisation; in person)
• Title to come
  • Cecilia Bellora (Economist, Modelling team of the Economic and Environment division, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development; in person)
• Title to come
  • Peter Dixon (Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University; in person) and James Giesecke (Professor and Director, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University; in person)
• Title to come
  • Adam Jakubik (Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, International Monetary Fund; in person)
• The 2018 trade war from a Melitz NQTM perspective
  • Nicolò Tamberi (Economist, Department of Business and Trade, UK Government)

* Please take note of the different room in which the Friday session will take place.

12:00pm-1:00pm – Lunch

• 12:30pm – Presentation by Pablo Fajgelbaum (Professor, Department of Economics, UCLA; online): “The short-run impact of U.S. 2025 tariffs”.