Next Year in Jerusalem (And Elsewhere in the Middle East)

Published in the Globe and Mail, December 28, 2012

A year ago, after noting that making predictions about the Middle East is a foolish endeavour, I made a series of predictions about what might happen there in 2012. To my amazement, most of them held up reasonably well. For those interested in grading them, my 2012 predictions can be found here.

A sensible person would leave well enough alone and not try it again. So here goes with some predictions for 2013:

The year of decision on Iran’s nuclear program (possibly): For many years, the prospect of an attack on Iran’s nuclear program has been hyped. No longer. Iran is getting sufficiently close to nuclear weapons capability (finally), and U.S. President Barack Obama will not want this issue to dominate his second term. I am therefore coming to the view that something decisive is going to happen in 2013. Mr. Obama will likely start with a final offer to the Iranians to resolve the issue, and an attack by the United States and/or Israel will then take place if the discussions fail. One way or the other, 2013 could well be the year when this interminable issue comes to a head….

Read the rest of this article on the Globe and Mail website.

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