The Ethiopian diaspora in Canada held a significant protest in Ottawa on November 19, 2024. The demonstrators carried posters denouncing the Ethiopian regime. Messages such as ‘Stop the Amhara genocide’, ‘Justice for the Amhara people’, were prominently displayed. From City Hall, the demonstrators marched to Parliament Hill, where community and religious leaders from the Amhara community across Canada delivered passionate speeches. This article analyzes the conflict in the Amhara region and the resulting gross human rights violations. It highlights the main driving factors for the conflict and offers recommendations.
The Ethiopian diaspora in Canada held a significant protest in Ottawa on November 19, 2024. The demonstrators carried posters denouncing the Ethiopian regime. Messages such as ‘Stop the Amhara genocide’, ‘Justice for the Amhara people’, were prominently displayed. From City Hall, the demonstrators marched to Parliament Hill, where community and religious leaders from the Amhara community across Canada delivered passionate speeches. This article analyzes the conflict in the Amhara region and the resulting gross human rights violations. It highlights the main driving factors for the conflict and offers recommendations. Ethiopia’s Amhara region has been experiencing violence for over a year. The armed conflict between Ethiopian government forces and the Fano, a fragmented insurgency claiming to fight for the Amhara people, began in April 2023. In August 2023, the Ethiopian government declared a state of emergency in the region, placing it under a military command post. This declaration was renewed for four months after it expired in November 2023. Although the renewed state of emergency expired in June 2024, the government has continued its operations with the same pace and intensity.
Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, international news outlets, and even the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission have extensively documented and reported the human rights violations and atrocity crimes committed by the Ethiopian government forces in the Amhara region. These violations include the targeting of schools, health centers, and private homes, as well as the killings of civilians by continuing drone strikes. Individuals from the Amhara ethnic group have faced mass detention, torture, inhumane treatment, enforced disappearances, and killings. The human rights abuses are so extensive that even members of the Ethiopian parliament, Addis Ababa City Council, and Amhara region State Council—who ordinarily have parliamentary immunity—have been arrested. They were taken, one of them in the middle of the night, from their homes, have been detained, and are still suffering from inhumane treatment. 4 million children are currently out of school due to the violence in the region. Many in the Amhara community, both domestically and abroad, believe that genocide is being committed against the Amhara people. Whether this amounts to genocide is to be determined by a competent body, but there is no question that the Ethiopian government forces have committed other atrocity crimes and human rights abuses.
Drivers of the Conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region
Several factors could explain the ongoing armed conflict in the Amhara region. However, two main factors stand out: unfulfilled promises and the security dilemma faced by the Amhara community following the November 2022 cessation of hostilities agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Unfulfilled promises
The current Ethiopian government initially had support from the Amhara people based on promises of democracy, political representation for Amharas living outside of the region, constitutional revision, and addressing identity and regional border issues. In 2018, the Amhara were assured that the era of repression was over and the journey towards democracy had begun.
However, this has not materialized, as political repression has continued. Their quest for political representation and the protection of Amharas living outside of the region has not been addressed, as they continue to be targeted. Constitutional revision, and identity and border issues remained unresolved. The National Dialogue Commission, established to facilitate “consultation” on such fundamental issues and provide recommendations to the government, has not gained legitimacy among Fano groups and some prominent Amhara politicians. Three years after its establishment in February 2022, the commission has achieved little, despite the country experiencing significant turmoil during its tenure.
Security dilemma following the cessation of hostilities agreement
Amhara political elites, particularly those critical of the government, were skeptical of the Pretoria cessation of hostilities agreement. First, they claimed they were not genuinely represented in the process, though they argued they should have been. Second, the actions taken by the government after the peace deal with the TPLF included targeting influential Amhara voices, disbanding the Amhara Special Forces (despite the government’s claim that it was disbanding all regional special forces), and disarming Fano, which the government had encouraged to take up arms and fight the TPLF in 2021. Given the Amhara political elites’ quagmire with the TPLF over the contested areas, the bloodshed during the Tigray war, and the fact that the TPLF military wing was not completely disarmed, these actions put Amhara elites in a security dilemma. They perceived the cessation of hostilities agreement as a new Abiy-TPLF pact against the Amhara.
The Fano insurgency
The developments mentioned above gave rise to the Fano insurgency in Ethiopia. Historically, Fano was associated with the Second Italo-Ethiopian War, where peasants took up arms to defend their country against Italian aggression. Today, it is a fragmented insurgency in the Amhara region, claiming to fight the Ethiopian government in the interest of the Amhara people. Although lacking a centralized command, the Fano insurgency has posed a significant challenge to the government. Fano leaders claim that the government has lost control of 80% of the Amhara region.
Recommendations
- Neither the government nor the Fano groups have resolved the conflict through military action. The international community must pressure the conflicting parties to agree to a negotiated settlement, starting with an immediate ceasefire.
- Ethiopia needs to engage in conversations and negotiations among armed and non-armed political groups, including Fano and the leading Prosperity Party, on fundamental political issues such as the constitution, ethnic federalism, political representation, identity and border issues, and democratic transition.
- The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission must either be reorganized, or a new body must be established, including its detractors in the process to gain their trust. This new body should be led by national actors and should be supported by regional and international actors.
- There must be accountability for atrocity crimes and human rights abuses. No one has been held to account for the atrocious crimes during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, and impunity has emboldened Ethiopian authorities to continue committing human rights abuses.