“The die is cast, and all bets are off.” This well-known idiom from casino games—a rule that should be familiar to Donald Trump, who has also brought it into politics and the United States’ relations with the rest of the world. After all, was it not he who, acting as the planet’s croupier, set the game of tariffs in motion with his “take it or leave it” ultimatum? Alas, it is now he, personally, and his party, who must submit to this very rule because “whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap” (The Bible).
Let’s be clear: the American people voted overwhelmingly against Trump. He, along with his family members, was at the very heart of the electoral reckoning. The armed aggression against Iran—not to mention Venezuela—coupled with President Trump’s unwavering political, financial, and military support for Netanyahu’s expansionist, genocidal policies in Gaza and beyond, has only added to the financial burdens of the American people. Americans were already struggling to recover from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic inflation that took hold during Joe Biden’s presidency. Added to these economic and political failures are the attitudes, behaviours, and rhetoric of the White House occupant. Indeed, the hateful, sectarian, divisive, misogynistic, and racist rhetoric of Mr. Trump, as well as his contempt for international law and international institutions, is beyond dispute. The image of the United States has never been more degraded or tarnished—even among its closest allies! Americans—including many who once believed in (or were misled by) the “America First” slogan, so insidiously wielded by Donald Trump—no longer buy into it. The verdict is in. The die is cast. The Strait of Hormuz has ended Trump’s deceptive policy.
The USA will never be the same. The blue wave, through its direct and indirect causes and its domestic and international repercussions, has ushered the ‘world’s leading power’ into a new era. Americans—and the world—will awaken to the reality of a power undermined and rusted, decayed and rotten from within. The damage inflicted under various oligarchies, especially under the Trump family, will be hard to repair. Moreover, the lobbies that have long indoctrinated Americans will not relinquish their prey easily. That is the true danger. America will certainly retreat into itself, but no one can predict the outcome of this confrontation—electoral and civic, for now—between, on the one hand, the new progressive and humanist generations of politicians opposing the heinous and racist policies of impoverishment and financial and military subservience to foreign governments and on the other hand, a cunning establishment, greedy for money and exploitation.
The establishment machine will mobilize all its financial, political, and media “aces up its sleeve “—initially to “contain” this movement and render it docile—so that it can subsequently either bring it back into the “fold” or demonize and marginalize it.
In my view, what to monitor over the coming weeks and months is the state of solidarity—and tension—among Democratic representatives in Congress. We are likely to see differing, and at times opposing, interpretations of the very issues and policy areas that underpinned their sweeping victory—most notably those concerning the end of the war in Iran and a revision of the relationship with Israel. It is worth remembering that not all elected Democrats are progressives, and rule-of-law and international-law defenders; Many of them belong to the establishment and maintain close ties to the military-industrial complex.
As for a war with Iran, I don’t believe the Trump administration will embark on a suicidal venture by using nuclear weapons against what remains of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Beyond the fact that this venture would constitute a serious violation of international law—and a complete reversal of the American nuclear posture, which is based on prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states and refraining from being the first to use such weapons—it would have incalculable ecological, geoeconomic, and geopolitical consequences.
For Canada, this “blue wave” is certainly a breath of fresh air and a major opportunity to rebalance relations with the United States. However, Canadian leaders at all levels—with Mr. Carney at the forefront—must strengthen ties with members of the U.S. Congress while carefully avoiding any move that could bruise Mr. Trump’s ego as they await the end of his term.
Moreover, they must carefully analyze the results of the U.S. mid-term elections and gain a thorough understanding of the reasons behind the Americans’ discontent. It is said that “the wisest person is the one who learns from the mistakes of others” (Proverb).
