This year features a record number of elections world-wide. More than 200 million Indonesians just voted in the traditionally high turnout one has come to expect in the world’s third largest democracy. So what do the results mean? What national story seems to be unfolding? Will it be more like “The Year of Living Dangerously” or just more of “The Game of Thrones”? Whatever the outcome, ensuing developments will have consequences.
The unofficial results of the Valentines Day election clearly show that Prabowo Subianto will be inaugurated as President in October, succeeding the popular Joko Widodo who is completing his second 5-year term. The 72-year-old former General attracted almost 60 percent of the vote in a three-way race with former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswaden and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. By exceeding the 50 percent threshold in such a surprising landslide, Prabowo avoided a runoff in June and has more than 6 months to prepare his Administration.
In the meantime, the popular Joko Widodo remains President. Rising from humble roots, ‘Jokowi’ as he is known, was a furniture salesman before becoming mayor of the small city of Solo and then governor of Jakarta. His 2014 election was hailed as a hopeful sign that Indonesian democracy had progressed beyond a tradition of rich dynasties taking the national stage. For a decade he focused domestically on economic development including greater industrial self-sufficiency and on infrastructure, notably construction of a new capital city, Nusantara, on the island of Borneo.
Other than recently hosting the G20 and ASEAN summits, Jokowi was less interested in international affairs, never addressing the UN General Assembly. Years later his popularity has been tainted for some by not meeting expectations on minority rights and the fight against corruption. This has been further compounded by recent nepotism combined with institutional biases in the recent election campaign and being disloyal to the PDIP party which first got him elected back in 2014. Some see this as democratic backsliding.
Let’s start by looking at the controversial figure, Prabowo Subianto, son-in-law of long-serving President Suharto, who was overthrown in 1998. Unlike Jokowi, Prabowo grew up in a rich family in which his father was a Suharto Minister. He lived in Europe and Malaysia before studying with the US military in Fort Benning, Georgia. As General in the Special Forces, Prabowo faces human rights abuse allegations in East Timor, West Papua, Aceh and in Jakarta. As the Suharto regime fell, he was responsible for the kidnapping, and some say the death, of student activists. He was dishonourably discharged from the Indonesian military and went into political exile as the New Order was dismantled and a new constitution enshrined.
Ever ambitious, Prabowo eventually returned and began running unsuccessfully as a right leaning nationalist populist for Vice President and President. As Ambassador in Jakarta during the 2019 election, I observed a closely fought second duel with Jokowi in which he was again defeated by a slim margin. He disputed the results for weeks resulting in demonstrations, violence and some deaths. What surprised me and others is that once officially returned to the Presidential Palace, Jokowi made Prabowo Defence Minister to neutralize opposition and co-opt parliamentary parties in the legislature to advance his agenda. I should not have been surprised for this was a variant on democracy with Indonesian characteristics driven by consensual politics designed to carve up the pie among rent seeking patrons.
For much of 2023 most expected Jokowi to support his party’s successor candidate, Ganjar, as an experienced elected Governor. However, in an effort to ensure continued influence and protect his legacy, Jokowi surprised everyone by nominating Prabowo and changing the constitution to allow his under 40 son Gibran to run as Prabowo’s VP running mate. This combination instantly resulted in Jokowi’s popularity giving increased momentum to Prabowo. Well-funded social media, including animation to project a warm, cuddly, dancing grandfather image for Prabowo on TikTok, accompanied by a youthful running mate caught the attention of young voters born before the last dark days of Suharto in the 1990s. Furthermore, during the campaign a normally non-partisan civil service and security apparatus showed biased Prabowo support, helped by timely food assistance programming by Jokowi.
The surprising success of Jokowi reminds me of the landslide May 2022 victory of President Marcos Jr in the Philippines. Son of the former deposed dictator, Marcos also lived abroad and was catapulted into the Palace with his VP running mate Sara Dutarte, daughter of the outgoing President. In both cases the storyline is more ‘Game of Thrones’, with family dynasties competing with strongman figures at the helm at a post-pandemic time when socio-economic inequalities are more visible than ever before through social media. The mass of anxious voters were increasingly beset with a sense of desperation and impatience with 25 years of liberal elites not delivering. Indeed, polling shows that average Indonesians look to what they perceive as strong leadership in Singapore, China and Saudi Arabia as delivering the economic prosperity they have been waiting too long to receive.
In both cases the storyline is more ‘Game of Thrones’, with family dynasties competing with strongman figures at the helm at a post-pandemic time when socio-economic inequalities are more visible than ever before through social media.
But is “A Year of Living Dangerously” still an alternative image going forward? Prabowo has voiced misgivings about the complications and cost of democracy. For example, he may end decentralized democracy by eliminating direct provincial governor elections in place of central appointments. There is concern that he may eliminate term limits and return the selection of the President to the legislature, away from the direct election now part of the constitution. His record on human rights including those of the ethnic Chinese minority raises concerns. US-educated, after 5 years as Defence Minister, he is expected to be more assertive vis-à-vis China on security issues. Military modernization is a costly item and signs are that Prabowo may be less sensitive to fiscal limitations, which could be of concern to investors.
On the other hand, Prabowo is older, could be mellower now that he has achieved his lifetime dream and does have health issues. He is seen as the continuity candidate determined to finish the building of the new national capital, maintaining the nickel and other industrial self-sufficiency drives, and pushing infrastructure building for greater connectivity. That continuity will likely include further weakening of the anti-corruption agency which could turn off foreign investors. On balance, we look set to more of “The Game of Thrones” scenario. Is a Joko-Gibran dynasty in the works? My next blog post will look deeper at Indonesia at the crossroads.
This is Part 2 of a three part series by Peter MacArthur. Part 1 is available here. Part 3 will be published on March 1st.
